[The Hwankyung Ilbo] The 2050 Carbon Neutral Committee (the Prime Minister, Seoul National University professor Yoon Soon-jin) announced that it will release the draft carbon neutral scenario in an e-brief by the chairman of the private sector. 

After President Moon Jae-in’s declaration of 2050 carbon neutrality in October last year and after the 2050 Carbon Neutralization Declaration, the government announced a plan to prepare a 2050 Carbon Neutral Scenario (December 2020), and accordingly, it formed a technical work group of 11 recommended experts from 11 ministries and started working on the 2050 Carbon Neutral Scenario (Janurary 2021-June 2021).

The committee, which was launched on May 29 this year, began to review scenarios in earnest based on the Carbon Neutral Scenario Technical Work Group, and presented a total of three scenarios after two months of review. 

The scenario predicts the future of carbon neutrality in 2050 and the conversion process by sector, which will serve as a compass for determining the detailed policy direction and speed of conversion by sector. 

The committee set the vision of a carbon neutral scenario as a "safe and sustainable carbon neutral society" and reviewed the scenario based on five principles: responsibility, inclusion, fairness, rationality and innovation.

The draft scenario announced today is that there are three options, including reducing fossil fuels and further reducing greenhouse gas through lifestyle changes, and converting hydrogen supply to green hydrogen.

Each alternative is expected to produce net greenhouse gas emissions from 25.4 million tonnes, 18.7 million tonnes, then net zero in 2050 by applying key reduction measures such as coal generation, electric hydrogen vehicle ratio (transportation), building energy management, CCUS and absorption. 

82.9% to 100% reduction in transition: 

Conversion is the sector with the largest gap between alternatives, reducing total greenhouse gas emissions of 269.6 million tons by 82.9 percent to 100 percent in each alternative in 2018, with emissions of 46.2 million tons in the first, 31.2 million tons in the second, and zero in the third.

In the case of the first plan, seven coal power plants that had not passed their lives until 2050, and the second plan assumed that coal power generation would be stopped but LNG power would be used as a flexible power source to respond to urgent demand.

The third plan assumes a plan to increase the proportion of renewable energy supply and to stop all coal and LNG generation.

As a policy proposal for implementing scenarios in the energy conversion sector,  expansion of renewable energy use, stability of renewable energy-oriented power supply system, utilization of advanced digital technologies to reduce power demand, and participation from all over the world were proposed.

The industrial sector's forecast for 2050 emissions is 53.1 million tons, down 79.6% from its total emissions of 260.5 million tons in 2018. 

Major means of reduction are conversion of electricity to entire steel furnaces, introduction of electric heating to petrochemical and oil refining industries, replacement of biomass boilers, and energy efficiency in power-related industries such as semiconductors, displays, and electronics.

As a policy suggestion to implement the industrial sector scenario, more investment in technology development and facility improvement, inducement of greenhouse gas reduction through emission trading system and green finance, and minimal damage such as job reduction. 

Reduction of transportation portion from 88.6% to 97.1%: 

The forecast for 2050 emissions is 11.2 million tons (9.4 million tons offset) and 2.8 million tons (3.3 million tons), down 88.6 to 97.1 percent from 98.1 million tons of total emissions in 2018.

The difference between the 1st and 2nd proposals and the 3rd proposals is the difference between the supply of electric and hydrogen vehicles, and the 1st and 2nd proposals assume that electric and hydrogen vehicles are distributed 76 percent and the 3rd proposals expand and distribute 97 percent.

To this end, ▷ More pollution-free vehicles such as electricity and hydrogen vehicles, more public transportation, more management of transportation, and more eco-friendly railways and shipping were proposed.

The projection of 2050 emissions in the building sector is 7.1 million tons then 6.2 million tons down from 86.4% to 88.1% from 52.1 million tons in 2018.

The third plan in comparison with the first and second plan is to further reduce urban gas by utilizing renewable energy (hydrothermal) and district heating as heat sources.

To reduce this, Green Remodeling, Zero Energy Building Certification Target, and the introduction of surplus power transactions between individuals have been proposed to improve building energy efficiency and manage demand.

Estimates of emissions for the agricultural, livestock and fisheries sectors in 2050 are 17.1 million tons then 15.4 million tons, down from 31.2 percent to 37.7 percent from 24.7 million tons in 2018. 

This is expected to reduce emissions on the premise that improves farming methods that suppress the generation of methane and nitrous oxide, improve livestock productivity, improve diet change, and increase of alternative processed foods.

The reduction in the waste sector is expected to be 4.4 million tons, down 74 percent from 17.1 million tons in 2018 through restrictions on the use of disposable products and renewable materials.

In addition, as of 2018, greenhouse gas absorption through absorption sources is 41.3 million tons, and the absorption capacity of forests is expected to be 13.9 million tons in 2050 without enhanced forest measures. The estimated absorption of 2050 carbon-neutral scenarios is from 24.1 million tons to 24.7 million tons.

CCUS predicts that it will be able to absorb 9.5 million tons, 8.5 million tons, then 57.9 million tons through investment expansion and technology development by collecting, storing, and utilizing greenhouse gases emitted.

In addition, demand for hydrogen is expected to expand by 2050. Assuming that hydrogen is supplied through hydrogen extracted from LNG and others, 13.6 million tons of greenhouse gas is expected to be emitted, and assuming that only greenhouse gas is used (3 options), greenhouse gas emissions are zero.

The committee plans to conduct a wide-ranging debate by September on the three draft scenarios unveiled today.

In addition to collecting opinions from industries, labor, civil society, youth, and local governments, it will also collect opinions from the general public through a carbon-neutral citizens' meeting to be launched on August 7th.

The committee will also hold additional discussions between ministries in the process of collecting opinions on major reduction measures and policy suggestions in the scenario, and will also review the ripple effects of each proposal.

The committee will announce the final government proposal in late October after a resolution by the committee and a cabinet meeting, reflecting the results of the collection of opinions from stakeholders and the general public.